OPEC countries unlikely to cut production

Industry expert says increase in production is more likely

Production could increase to shore up public finances.
Production could increase to shore up public finances.

A cut in oil production by OPEC countries is unlikely, with an increase in output more likely, according to an industry expert.

The OPEC countries meet on November 27th, with the falling price of crude high on the agenda.

But Jan Imhof, head of global modelling at Aurora Energy Research, doesn’t believe members will bow to calls to cut output.

“The conflict in the Middle East hasn’t impacted supply greatly, oil demand has fallen below expectations this year, and, critically, OPEC’s meeting in November may signal decreasing willingness to hold back supply,” he told Arabianoilandgas.com

“The budgetary positions of a number of key members make it very difficult to decrease production in response to a falling oil price.

“Our analysis of the fiscal positions of a number of OPEC members makes it seem unlikely. It is more plausible that production will begin to increase to sure up the public finances. Iraq and Iranian production should climb substantially in the medium to long term.”
 

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